The impact of vaccination on the spread of varicella in Hungary

2018. 11. 13. 12:15
Karsai János

János Karsai, János Dudás, Rita Csuma-Kovács, and Gergely Röst

Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Hungary

Varicella is one of the most common infectious diseases of children, which can be prevented by vaccine. Varicella causes not only the chickenpox of children, but also the herpes zoster at an older age. In Hungary, the vaccine is marketed for more than 15 years, but it has been obligatory only from this year. Unfortunately, there has been hardly any study neither on its impact nor the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies.

In our talk, we consider different models of  varicella infections including vaccination strategies taking into account the Hungarian specialties. We study the available demographic and epidemiological data, perform parameter estimations and present Mathematica experiments for the possible consequences of the different vaccination strategies.

This research is supported by the EU-funded Hungarian grant  EFOP-3.6.2-16-2017-00015.

References, selected

M. J. N. M. Ouwens, K. J. Littlewood, C. Saubion, B. Téhard,  F. Denis, P. Boëlle, S. Alain: The Impact of 2-Dose Routine Measles, Mumps, Rubella, and Varicella Vaccination in France on the Epidemiology of Varicella and Zoster Using a Dynamic Model With an Empirical Contact Matrix, Clinical Therapeutics,  37(4), 816-829.e10, 2015.

M. Brisson, G. Melkonyan, M. Drolet, G. De Serres, R. Thibeault, P. De Wals: Modeling the impact of one- and two-dose varicella vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella and zoster, Vaccine, 28, 3385-3397, 2010.

Az előadás a Formális reakciókinetikai szeminárium és a Mathematica szeiminárium közös előadása.